Species

Impacts on Terrestrial and Freshwater Biodiversity: Species
	What is happening	What might happen*
Mammals	Mass die-offs of flying foxes in extreme heat³⁶ Reduction in occurrence of platypus linked to increased maximum temperatures³⁷ Decline in koala distribution and density associated with drought³⁸	Population declines, and distribution shifts - most likely poleward and/or to higher altitudes^{39,40,41,42,43} Changed community dynamics as species distributions and life cycles change⁴⁴ Decline in palatability of leaves for species such as koalas ⁴⁵ Increased mortality due to extreme heat stress, e.g. in tropical montane marsupials⁴⁶
Birds	Changes in timing of life cycle events, including breeding and migration^47,48,49,50 Breeding failures in a number of species^48,51,52 Shifts in average body size, some passerine species becoming smaller^47,53 Heat-related deaths in Carnaby’s cockatoos⁵⁴ Decline in wetland bird populations associated with reduced flooding extent and frequency⁵⁵ Shifts in distributional and altitudinal ranges, most commonly to higher latitudes and altitudes^49,56	Negative impacts on foraging behavior and success with seasonality changes^57,58 Reduced breeding success in beach nesting species with sea level rise⁵⁰ Increased heat-related deaths⁵⁹
Reptiles	Shifts in sex ratios (more males in colder conditions) in a live-bearing skink⁶⁰ Indirect effects on survival due to impacts on prey species⁶¹ Declines in freshwater turtles associated with drought and habitat drying⁶²	Altered thermoregulatory behavior and microhabitat use in oviparous species with temperature dependent sex determination⁶³ Reduced breeding and offspring success due to higher incubation temperatures⁶⁴ Reduction in growth rates in juvenile Western Swamp Tortoise⁶⁵ Estuarine crocodiles could move southward, increasing human-crocodile conflict⁶⁶
Amphibians	Population declines associated with drought⁶⁷	Alpine, bog and peatland species threatened by drying and fire impacts^68,69 Tropical and high elevation species negatively affected by changes to seasonal rainfall and increased temperatures⁷⁰ Reduced soil moisture may decrease egg survival and fitness^71,72 Loss of ephemeral breeding ponds and sites⁷³ Increasing temperatures could result in faster development and emergence times in some species⁷⁴ Terrestrial breeding frogs vulnerable from delayed Autumn rains⁷⁵ Potential for climate change to increase the prevalence of the amphibian chytrid fungus⁷⁶
Invertebrates	Genetic and distribution changes, reflecting a warmer climate, in Drosophila (fruit fly)^77,78 Earlier emergence time of the common brown butterfly⁷⁹ Declines in species richness⁸⁰	Shifts in community composition - higher species richness at more temperate latitudes^81,82 Disruption and mis-timing of plant-pollinator relationships⁸³ Mismatch between pest species and their natural enemies⁸⁴
Freshwater Fish	Decline in five fish species of conservation significance, associated with prolonged drought, in the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin⁸⁵	Range contractions as a result of rising water temperature, altered flows and habitat loss ⁸⁶ Invasive species predicted to increase and spread⁸⁷ Increases in salinity expected to negatively affect species in the Murray-Darling River, South-West Western Australia⁸⁸and Kakadu⁸⁹ Species preferring cold-water most likely to be under stress in Murray-Darling Basin, especially in Lower Murray Region⁹⁰
Freshwater Invertebrates	Decline in ecological condition, as measured by macroinvertebrates, in Victoria⁹¹ Widespread reduction in species that prefer cooler, fast-flowing water bodies⁹²	Decline in warm temperature intolerant species⁹³ Increased distribution of invasive New Zealand freshwater snails⁸⁷ Loss of habitat for burrowing crayfish⁹⁴
Plants	Phenological shifts including earlier flowering times^95,96,78 Drought-related death in the Tasmanian Miena Cider Gum⁹⁷ Decline in sphagnum moss in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales and Macquarie Island^98,99 Earlier flowering in some orchids ¹⁰⁰	Preferred climate for seedling development may move beyond dispersal distance, resulting in seedling establishment failure¹⁰¹ Weed species will shift range, altering community dynamics and competitive Interactions^102,103 Increased mortality during drought of heat-sensitive species¹⁰⁴ Further shifts in flowering times - most predicted to flower earlier⁹⁶ Breeding failures due to loss/mis-match of pollinators¹⁰⁵ Some obligate seeding species may experience temperatures too high for germination to occur¹⁰⁶ Potential negative impacts of wildfires on long-lived endemics¹⁰⁷

* There is a very real potential for the extinction of many species, particularly endemic species in mountain ecosystems. Predicting extinction is difficult, however, many studies in Australia, and globally, predict extremely severe declines and potential extinctions across a wide range of taxonomic groups and ecosystems^{209,210,211,212,213,214}